Apologies to the eight people who actually read this blog for not writing anything since October. I really have no good excuses. On to the next topic...
I recently read an interesting distinction between the phrases "global warming" and climate change." Global warming is the increase in average global temperature due to humans pouring carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Climate change, on the other hand, is the more localized effect of global warming. Climate change can be any number of things: floods, droughts, heatwaves, cold snaps, rising sea levels, hurricanes, monsoons, changing ocean currents and salt or acid levels, etc. Climate change is the effect of global warming, and that effect will be different around the world.
Will those effects be good or bad? Depends on the place and the nature of the change, but the one thing we can be sure of about ALL of these effects is that they will increase the uncertainty surrounding weather events. We may all take it for granted, but weather predictability is extremely important both to human health and safety, as well as to the global economy. Think of how much the recent snowstorms in the U.S. this winter disrupted the national economy. One recent study estimates close to $1 billion in losses per state where roads become impassable and state governments shut down. When such storms hit regions that are typically unprepared for such weather, the effect is even greater.
Uncertainty is the great scourge here. According to geologists and climatologists, we live in a remarkably stable and predictable climate, and that has contributed to the ability for civilizations to grow and flourish. We know when to plant and harvest crops, we know when to hunt and when to keep warm, and the extremes of either temperature (hot or cold) are historically rarely enough to immediately threaten human life. That's no longer true. Wheat in Russia is devastated one summer, while millions to this day remain homeless in Pakistan due to unprecedented flooding. When these sorts of weather events occur with increasing frequency, how can we build homes and cities near rivers without taking huge risks? How can we be sure that the grain for which we have contracted will be delivered?
Uncertainty increases as risk increases. And risk leads to higher costs. Higher costs lead to less economic productivity, which leads to a decreased standard of living, for both the rich and the poor. We often hear that efforts to reduce global warming cannot interfere with economic growth. But that's the just the thing; stopping global warming, and thereby providing a more stable and predictable environment for our economy, can only help productivity and economic growth. Allowing business as usual will, in the long-run, cripple the growth and welfare of the economy and human civilization, and create significant political and regional unrest. And anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to sell you something...like a tank of gasoline.
