For those of you still engaged in the debate over whether climate change is real, here’s some news: the debate’s over, and the climate change skeptics have lost. With apologies for the bluntness, they are simply wrong, and they most likely chose to disagree due to their short-term economic self-interest.
Consider the new study published by William Anderegg of Stanford University in PNAS, the official journal of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Anderegg and his coauthors examined an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers. Their “publication and citation data show that (i) 97-98 percent of climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets [of climate change] and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of [climate change] are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.” Seems like a fairly one-sided debate.
But wait, skeptics say, what about that whole Climategate debacle, where stolen e-mails from climate scientists at East Anglia University in Britain supposedly showed climate data manipulation? And what about Michael Mann, the climate scientist from Penn State and the University of Virginia? His research has been under investigation by overzealous political opportunist Ken Cuccinelli (Attorney General of Virginia). These incidents are proof that scientists have been manipulating data and lying about climate change, aren’t they!?
Sorry climate change skeptics, but both accusations have been extensively reviewed and dismissed. In Britain, three official panels found no reason to dispute either the rigor or the honesty of the climate scientists. At Penn State, two panels found Michael Mann not guilty of any scientific wrongdoing.
Subsequent comprehensive reports from the National Academies of Science and the National Research Council have not only confirmed the global consensus on climate change, but also more fully detailed the consequences to the U.S. of a warming planet.
Let us imagine the skeptics have seen the evidence and are convinced. Polls show most Americans both don’t consider climate change a priority, they claim. But is this really true? A new poll and analysis of polling data by Dr. Jonathan Krosnick of Stanford University finds that a large majority of Americans believe climate change is real, is caused by human actions and that the government should actively pursue ways of slowing and reversing climate change.
Krosnick debuted this poll in a recent New York Times op-ed. The most intriguing results came from the state level polls (especially important for senators), where Krosnick finds that majorities in every single state believe climate change is caused by human activity (the majority of states had rates of 80-90 percent). Further, Krosnick found that an astounding 74 percent of Americans support the concept of a cap-and-trade regime to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
So why are climate change skeptics so vocal and why are they given a bigger platform than their arguments deserve? Easy: they are most often people with the most to lose if the world shifts away from fossil fuels, and they have lots of money. Companies like Exxon Mobil, Koch Industries and others base their entire business model on our dependence on fossil fuels. And they are decidedly more interested in maintaining healthy quarterly profits than in supporting a decades-long global transition that leaves their futures uncertain.
I wish the scientists and experts were wrong. I wish pouring carbon dioxide into our atmosphere had no effect on global temperatures and we could go on merrily burning oil, natural gas and coal. But they are not, and no amount of lobbying, obfuscation or denial will stop the temperature from rising.
The proof is in the pudding, and the pudding is overcooked.
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