Friday, July 2, 2010

Conservatism and Climate Change

For those of us who really care about climate change, here’s a question. Why? Why do we want to stop the surface temperature of the earth from warming, the icebergs from melting, sea levels from rising, polar bears from dying, and coral reefs from shrinking? The answer may be less obvious, and less virtuous, than we think.

The earth’s climate has shifted countless times over billions of years in a variety of extreme directions, with a dizzying array of consequences for life on the planet. True, current climate change will negatively affect a multitude of animal and plant life, but it will also positively affect other animal and plant life more suited to the changing global conditions.

Humanity will survive, and the natural world will adapt and reach a new equilibrium. So why do we want to stop these changes? Is it guilt from being the cause? Perhaps it is because the costs are more visible than the benefits. But should we feel guilty? Plant life previously changed our entire atmosphere, introducing large amounts of oxygen for the first time. No doubt some species suffered. Animals flourished. Are plants to blame for those changes?

While guilt may be part of it, I submit that we care most about climate change’s negative impacts on humanity. We mostly like current temperatures, rainfall patterns, sea levels, and plant and animal distributions. We have well-established human patterns (both globally and locally) that depend on a degree of environmental certainty. Our cities are built near water, our crops are sewn where they grow best, and we are dependent on the predictability of a variety of natural cycles. Changing our habits and infrastructure would be incredibly expensive, wildly inconvenient, and would impose a heavy toll on human lives.

This leads me to believe that we are motivated to slow climate change mostly by conservative and selfish impulses. We want things to remain the same, and we don’t want to deal with adapting to change. My point is that stopping climate change is not a moral cause, nor is it an environmental cause, and it need not be in order to feel passionate about it. It is a cause predicated upon the continuity of our physical, cultural, economic, and political preferences. And that is alright.

When it comes to climate change, those of us who want to take action now are the true conservatives. (Note that political conservatives use the exact same argument of preserving opportunity for future generations when they discuss deficit control.) And approaching the issue with that attitude will be incredibly important in marshaling public opinion to inspire our leaders to take action. We must point out that the benefits of stopping climate change outweigh the costs.

Opponents of action raise valid, if shortsighted, points. Slowing and stopping climate change will have short-term consequences. It won’t all be green jobs and windmills overnight. People will lose jobs. Economic growth will slow. Some Western Virginia coal mining towns will become ghost towns.

But we know that the consequences of inaction are far worse than the consequences of action. And we know that once we start changing our ways, eventually the drive of new innovation and human ingenuity will yield a civilization able to sustain itself and live within its means. And the best way we can communicate that is not by talking about polar bears and coral reefs, but by being honest with ourselves and others, being selfish, and speaking the language of conservatism when we talk about climate change.

4 comments:

  1. 1) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/12/06/earths_next_last_chance_99431.html

    "Barack Obama, understanding the histrionics required in climate change debates, promises that U.S. emissions in 2050 will be 83 percent below 2005 levels. If so, 2050 emissions will equal those in 1910, when there were 92 million Americans. But there will be 420 million in 2050, so Obama's promise means that per capita emissions then will be about what they were in 1875. That. Will. Not. Happen."

    2) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/13/AR2009021302514.html

    3) http://www.masterresource.org/2009/04/the-george-will-sea-ice-controversy-is-he-more-correct-than-thought/

    4) "But we know that the consequences of inaction are far worse than the consequences of action. And we know that once we start changing our ways, eventually the drive of new innovation and human ingenuity will yield a civilization able to sustain itself and live within its means. And the best way we can communicate that is not by talking about polar bears and coral reefs, but by being honest with ourselves and others, being selfish, and speaking the language of conservatism when we talk about climate change."

    You know, without a doubt, that the consequences of inaction are worse than the consequences of action? 100%? For sure? Sounds like the same Obama-esque rhetoric re: the stimulus without the data to back himself up.

    If human ingenuity will yield a civilization better able to sustain iteself, why impose a tax on carbon or a cap-and-trade scheme and not, instead, encourage investment in innovation and reward new technology and old (nuclear)? Why punish the people for something that isn't a negative externality and isn't, conclusively, harming the earth?

    I agree the debate needs to change its tone and terms. But you need a different spokesperson. Al Gore just doesn't cut it. He refuses to debate people or take questions from dissenters on the topic and is praised by the media and Hollywood for his terrible propaganda ("An Inconvenient Truth").

    Let's have an honest debate about energy and the environment, not the "sky is falling" scare tactics that have been employed so far.

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  3. MichaelQuotes,

    You challenge the scientific validity and human causes of climate change, which is not the subject of this post. I won't try to convince you that climate change is real and has consequences, but I wonder how selectively you have been with the reading that you do on the subject. I will say this: George Will is not a scientist, and cherry-picking random facts out of context does not a rebuttal make.

    You ask if I am 100% sure that climate change will yield terrible consequences. I'll answer with a question: do I need to be 100% sure? If you were 90, even 70 percent sure something terrible would happen to a member of your family, would you sacrifice a year's salary to ensure that it didn't? I would, and those are the stakes with climate change. It's basically like buying insurance. In this case, however, you are less risk averse than I am. I just hope you have the right information to help you make your decision. And yes, I am as close to sure as one can be.

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  4. Hey Ryan,

    This is Mike Wille, btw. Sorry, I thought it had linked to my Google Account.

    I know it wasn't the subject of the post, but we need to agree on the premise of climate change actually occurring to have a legitimate debate on the subject.

    I've read a lot on the subject. The UN IPCC reports, testimony from different scientists, and working papers on climate change. None of them truly put the subject in an historical perspective. We've had carbon in the air at nearly 1,000 ppm eons ago, and the world survived. Humans can survive well past 350 ppm (since we have been for awhile). And like you said, we will adapt.

    George Will didn't cherry pick random facts out of context. He took assertions made by politicians and used his common sense to determine if the rhetoric they were spouting could hold up under rigorous evaluation. The world is going to have 9 billion people in it in 2050. There's no way we're going to be able to have the energy use of the late 19th century for all them.

    Yes, you need to be 100% sure because you are talking about implementing a costly system that will affect the entire economy, especially the poor. I will not let the UN and Al Gorge and scientists at East Anglia who have manipulated data to make things appear worse than they are scare me into supporting bad legislation to prevent something that we don't even know is going to occur! There hasn't been any climate change the last 12 years. And we are entering a cooling period.

    All I'm saying is: before we go massively harming our economy in a recession, let's think twice and evaluate all our options and then take the approach that hurts us the least. And from my perspective, that is not a carbon tax or cap and trade.

    For more views on this, check out anything done by this guy:

    http://www.cato.org/people/patrick-michaels

    Hope everything is well with you!

    Michael

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